Florida's Cannabis Market: On the Verge of Transformation
Florida is on the cusp of a significant shift with the impending legalization of adult-use marijuana. With a strong medical marijuana program already in place, the state is expected to become one of the largest cannabis markets in the U.S. The potential legalization in November 2024 could lead to a market explosion, with sales projections indicating a range between $4.9 billion to $6.1 billion in the first year of adult-use sales — outpacing California with roughly half the population!
Florida's Cannabis Market Set to Explode with Adult-Use Legalization

1

Impending Legalization
Florida prepares for a significant market shift with the legalization of adult-use marijuana, slated for November 2024.

2

Current Market Strength
The state already boasts a robust medical marijuana program with over 871,000 registered patients and $2 billion in annual sales.

3

Projected Sales Surge
Projections indicate that Florida could see $4.9 billion to $6.1 billion in sales during the first year of adult-use implementation.
Trulieve Poised to Dominate the Florida Cannabis Market
Market Leadership
Trulieve, with its 134 dispensing locations, is the undisputed market leader and is projected to generate $1.69 billion in the first year of adult-use cannabis sales.
Revenue Per Store
With an impressive $12.6 million in revenue per store, Trulieve solidifies its position as the powerhouse of the Florida cannabis industry.
Other Major Players
Curaleaf, Ayr Cannabis Dispensary, MÜV, and Surterra Wellness are also expected to experience significant growth post-legalization.
Florida's Cannabis Market on the Brink of Change

1

Supreme Court Approval
On April 1, 2024, the Florida Supreme Court approved a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana.

2

Ballot Measure
The measure is set to appear on the November 2024 ballot, with a 60% approval needed for legalization.

3

Market Expansion
The 25 companies currently licensed for medical sales will be able to sell cannabis for recreational use to adults over 21.
Campaign Backing and Market Potential
Trulieve's Support
Trulieve contributed over $39 million to support the initiative, aiming to open up the market to adult-use while maintaining the medical program.
Medical Marijuana Program
Florida's medical marijuana program is the largest in the U.S. with over 871,000 registered patients and $2 billion in sales.
Market Concentration
The market is highly concentrated, with the top five operators dominating the landscape.
Market Concentration and Leading Operators in Florida
Trulieve's Market Dominance
1
Dispensing Locations
Trulieve commands 21% of dispensing locations with its 134 stores.
2
Sales Leadership
Trulieve is estimated to commands 34% of all cannabis sales in Florida.
3
Flower and Concentrate Sales
Trulieve dominates both flower (40% share) and concentrate (30% share) sales.
Product Breakdown and Pricing
Smokable Flower
Smokable flower, including flower and pre-rolls, accounts for 47.1% of total sales in Florida.
Concentrates
Concentrates make up the remaining 52.9% of sales, including a variety of product forms.
Pricing
Florida's cannabis prices are low on an equivalized basis, coming in at $5.20 after average discounting rate of 45%.
Post-Legalization Landscape in Florida

1

Legislative Changes
The amendment will allow licensed companies to sell recreational cannabis to adults over 21.

2

Market Expansion
Existing medical marijuana program will remain, ensuring continued access for patients.

3

Regulatory Framework
Specific regulations and guidelines for licensing, taxation, and product safety are expected.
Sales Projections and Market Growth
To forecast the potential growth of the Florida cannabis market post-legalization, we can look to other states that have undergone similar transitions. Using Maryland as a proxy, which also legalized adult-use cannabis after having a robust medical market, we observed a 2.25x increase in monthly sales immediately following legalization, with a 2.4X increase at market maturity.
Florida Monthly Sales Forecast
Using SARIMA time-series forecasting built on the last 27 months of sales (January 2022 through March 2024) that incorporates seasonality into its forecasts, we see growth in Florida's medical market coupled with a step-change in overall sales 6 months after legalization passes November 2024.
Impact on Leading Operators
The leading operators in the Florida cannabis market are poised to experience significant growth in the first 12 months of legal adult-use sales (June 2025 through May 2026), assuming their market shares remain consistent and no new store openings occur during this period.
Trulieve's Growth
Trulieve is projected to generate $1.69 billion in total sales during the first year of adult-use legalization.
Curaleaf's Expansion
Curaleaf is projected to generate $651.7 million in total sales during the first year of adult-use sales.
Ayr Cannabis Opportunity
Ayr Cannabis Dispensary is projected to generate $464.4 million in total sales during the first year of adult-use legalization.
Trulieve's Revenue Breakdown

1

Flower Sales
Trulieve is expected to generate $908.4 million in flower sales.

2

Concentrate Sales
Trulieve is expected to generate $782.9 million in concentrate sales.

3

Revenue Per Store
This translates to an impressive $12.6 million in revenue per store over the 12-month period.
Curaleaf's Market Strategy
1
Dispensing Locations
Curaleaf, with 61 dispensing locations, is set to capitalize on the growing market.
2
Flower and Concentrate Sales
The company is expected to generate $244.6 million in flower sales and $407.0 million in concentrate sales.
3
Year over Year Performance
Curaleaf saw a minimal decrease in Flower market share by -0.24%, but a significant increase of 1.92% in Concentrates.
Ayr Cannabis Growth Potential
Total Sales Projection
Ayr Cannabis Dispensary is projected to generate $464.4 million in total sales during the first year of adult-use legalization.
Product Offerings
The company should enhance its product offerings and retail experiences to attract new customers.
Marketing Initiatives
Ayr Cannabis increased its number of locations from 60 to 63. It experienced a -2.99% decrease in Flower market share but a slight increase of 0.12% in Concentrates
MÜV's Position in the Evolving Market
MÜV is a prominent medical cannabis dispensary network in Florida, with over 60 locations throughout the state.

1

Projected Sales
MÜV is projected to generate $449.7 million in total sales during the first year of adult-use sales.

2

Operational Focus
MÜV should streamline operations and expand its product range to maintain its market position.

3

Year over year Performance
MÜV expanded its dispensing locations from 66 to 74, showing a strong commitment to growth. In the Flower segment, its market share decreased slightly by -2.71%, but in the Concentrates segment, it saw a marginal increase of 0.38%.
Surterra Wellness's Revenue Outlook
1
Total Sales Projection
Surterra Wellness is projected to generate $358.3 million in total sales during the first year of adult-use legalization sales.
2
Retail Optimization
The company should optimize its retail footprint and enhance product quality to grow its market share.
3
Customer Strategies
Surterra maintained its number of locations at 45, focusing on consolidating its market position rather than expanding. It saw a 1.03% increase in Flower market share but a -1.86% decrease in Concentrates
Here Comes the Competition
While established operators like Trulieve, Curaleaf, and Ayr Cannabis Dispensary are expected to maintain their strong positions in the Florida cannabis market, several up-and-coming players are making significant strides and poised to disrupt the industry.
1
Cookies Florida, Inc.
Newcomer with remarkable growth, capturing 0.83% of flower market share and 0.40% of concentrate market share in 2024, representing a 208% and 763% increase, respectively.
2
Sunburn
Significant gains in market share and store count, with flower market share surging by 157% to 1.59% and concentrate market share more than doubling to 2.35%.
3
Sunnyside*
Impressive growth with an 18% increase in store count, and substantial market share growth, showcasing operational efficiency and resonating with Florida's cannabis consumers.
4
VidaCann
Maintained dispensing locations with remarkable growth in market share, highlighting the company's ability to optimize its existing infrastructure and connect with its target audience effectively.
Big Movers in Flower Share YoY
Trulieve leads at 39.5% of all Flower sales in the state, but is facing continued competition from new entrants and existing operators that continue to expand.
Forecasting Assumptions for Florida's Cannabis Market
Market share metrics built off of OMMU reported weekly data.
Market Share Consistency
Projections assume that the leading operators maintain their current market shares.
No New Store Openings
The projections do not account for new store openings during the first year of adult-use sales.
Sales Mix Stability
A stable sales mix of flower and concentrates is assumed for the revenue projections.
Welcome to the High-Rise!
A laid back data backed conversation talking all things Florida.
Join Emily Paxhia Managing Partner of Poseidon and Cy Scott CEO of Headset as we discuss the implications of a legal adult-use cannabis market in Florida.
Conclusion: Florida's Cannabis Market Forecast
The first 12 months of adult-use cannabis sales in Florida are expected to generate significant revenue growth for the leading operators. Trulieve, Curaleaf, Ayr Cannabis Dispensary, MÜV, and Surterra Wellness are projected to generate a combined total of $3.62 billion in sales within the first 12 months after adult-use legalization is implemented. To maximize their market share, these operators will need to focus on operational efficiency, product innovation, customer experience, and brand differentiation. Adapting to the evolving market will be key to their long-term success in the Florida cannabis industry.
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